Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.092943 0.106608 0.121475 0.138836 0.158538 0.180189 0.205769
2026-02-08 0.070987 0.088434 0.108914 0.134676 0.166163 0.203338 0.250503
2026-02-15 0.054862 0.073826 0.097718 0.129910 0.172022 0.225095 0.296905
2026-02-22 0.045488 0.065846 0.093261 0.132653 0.187543 0.261017 0.366476
2026-03-01 0.035856 0.055740 0.084310 0.127993 0.192667 0.284360 0.423552
2026-03-08 0.028785 0.047930 0.077198 0.124684 0.199141 0.310573 0.488838
2026-03-15 0.023302 0.041459 0.070927 0.121522 0.205305 0.337265 0.559041
2026-03-22 0.020120 0.038094 0.068937 0.124755 0.221962 0.382420 0.664527
2026-03-29 0.016912 0.034032 0.065051 0.124130 0.232145 0.418666 0.761043
2026-04-05 0.014615 0.031167 0.062746 0.125867 0.246672 0.464260 0.880036
2026-04-12 0.012760 0.028774 0.060877 0.128069 0.262368 0.514090 1.013625
2026-04-19 0.010486 0.025026 0.055670 0.122854 0.263108 0.536652 1.100294
2026-04-26 0.008409 0.021296 0.049909 0.115727 0.259435 0.551384 1.176531
2026-05-03 0.006971 0.018691 0.046049 0.111941 0.262077 0.579101 1.283019
2026-05-10 0.005763 0.016351 0.042314 0.107729 0.263120 0.603793 1.387278
2026-05-17 0.005112 0.015281 0.041368 0.109858 0.278833 0.662104 1.571978
2026-05-24 0.004259 0.013445 0.038149 0.105838 0.279509 0.687475 1.688053
2026-05-31 0.003601 0.011986 0.035589 0.102982 0.282519 0.718634 1.821998
2026-06-07 0.003056 0.010716 0.033261 0.100276 0.285438 0.750029 1.961178
2026-06-14 0.002771 0.010185 0.032904 0.102914 0.302771 0.818923 2.200797
2026-06-21 0.002427 0.009365 0.031518 0.102351 0.311392 0.867323 2.396368
2026-06-28 0.002182 0.008815 0.030841 0.103764 0.325811 0.932790 2.644882
2026-07-05 0.001975 0.008346 0.030322 0.105571 0.341718 1.004535 2.919909